Yale 2026 Election Prediction Competition

All Forecasts

Contest forecasts by nickname, next to the class models and published forecasts.

Entries close at 11:59 pm ET on Sunday, November 1.

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Forecast Comparisons

Contest: entries next to the class model, academic and professional averages, and markets. All published: every published forecast on its own. Applies to the charts and the table.

Projected seats: the races each forecast favors Democrats in (published forecasts without race-level calls: their published seat number). Most to least Democratic. Bold italic: not a contest entry. Blue: Democratic majority. Red: Republican majority.
contest entry or class modelpublished forecastaverage of the forecasts shown

Forecast Table

Most to least Democratic by House seats; by accuracy once results are in. Seats: races favored (median). Entries sent without simulations show races favored only, with no range or chances. Accuracy: average error in the Democratic vote share. Bold italic rows are not contest entries and are not ranked. The contest average (shown once there are two entries) pools the entries' simulations; academic and professional averages show the average chance and the median of their seat numbers. Click a column to sort.

    Split Races

    Races where forecasts split most evenly: contest entries, the Class Fundamentals Model and ElectIt. Margins in points (D minus R).

    Professional and Academic Benchmarks

    Race by race, from the published forecasts that release race-level numbers (captured Oct 31). Polymarket has no market for AK-01, CA-22 or CA-27; no outside source covers the Montana Senate race. Uncontested races left out. Most competitive first. 2024 result: the 2024 House margin where the district lines haven't changed (blank if redrawn or uncontested).

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